As we look ahead to 2024, the cybersecurity space will teeter on the cusp of momentous transformations. The unfolding trends will not be incremental; rather, they will herald a cyber renaissance, completely reforming our approaches to threats. It will be a year where an organization’s digital defenses will be rigorously tested, and its strategies will be honed.

Here are our top cybersecurity trends that will help CISOs plan ahead:

Increase in ransomware attacks: In 2023, there were thousands of new ransomware variants that were discovered in the first half itself. New variants often tend to slip past legacy tools such as the traditional antivirus. With the ability to impersonate and create flawless text, modern tools can be used to develop malware. In fact, Malware-as-a-Service and Ransomware-as-a-Service is already freely available on the Dark Web. Ransomware is slated to spike, specially targeting critical infrastructure and OT environments. Therefore, governments must take cognizance of this fact as such attacks can impact a large part of the population.

AI-supported attacks: Cyberattacks are exploding. What was once practiced by serious hackers and coding experts, it is now being carried out by kids and the curious alike. This is due to the fact that there are several modern tools available at their disposal. Artificial Intelligence (AI) supported attacks are expected to rise. There have been instances where hackers leveraged modern tools like generative AI for malicious purposes such as writing harmful Java code, recreating known malware strains and techniques, and running it on a system.

Hackers have also been using AI tools for encrypting and decrypting data using cryptographic algorithms. Though the codes generated in most instances are harmless, such tools can be easily utilized to run on a system without any user interaction. Thus, rendering it as ransomware in the process. In such a context, organizations should try and automate security in every possible manner, if they want to keep up with the attackers. They will need to facilitate increased collaboration between the development as well as the cybersecurity teams. They must leverage automation to secure software, reduce development time and costs and most importantly be ready for any cyberattack. Organizations should also start leveraging AI for threat intelligence and managing security operations center (SOC) alerts.

“As a consequence, there will also be a greater regulatory focus on AI use and this may lead nations to collaborate. We will discover new possibilities of AI-based disruptions. Recently, DDOS on Licensed AI could become reality. ChatGPT succumbed to prompt bombing and divulged personal data,” says Agnidipta Sarkar, Vice President CISO Advisory, ColorTokens Inc.

More supply chain attacks: How do supply chain attacks happen? What could be done differently to address hidden risks and vulnerabilities in supply chains? Organizations will need to seriously think about this and factor it in their cybersecurity postures as such attacks are going to rise. Against this background, devsecops would be critical to address visibility into hidden risks and vulnerabilities in supply chains.

Attacks targeting cryptocurrency set to rise: In the past year, cryptocurrency agencies have been at the receiving end of sophisticated cyberattacks. There have been instances where transactions were approved without the 2FA authentication control being inputted by the user. This led to thousands of users getting impacted, with unauthorized withdrawals of millions of dollars. In the coming year 2024, this space will witness more attacks, scams and phishing attacks.

“We will need to focus more on human interface as far as training, awareness, capacity building, routine incident response drills, etc. are concerned. We need people to be able read alerts as well as red flags by a SIEM and they should be in a position to remediate in real time as the attacks are becoming more sophisticated,” says Prof. Triveni Singh, former SP, Cyber Crime at Uttar Pradesh Police.

Quantum computing attacks: Quantum computing is coming up in a big way due to exponential developments in computing power and processors. Attacks, backed by quantum computing, and targeting cryptography will increase. Organizations will need to shift to quantum safe algorithms.

Cloud misconfigurations and identity flaws would be used for carrying out sophisticated cyber-attacks. Organizations will need to implement a mature as well as streamlined cloud governance model, which can significantly accelerate their security response capabilities.

Zero trust model will continue to enhance in 2024: Despite an urgent need, many businesses do not have adequate visibility into their data and networks in order to architect a zero-trust environment. Such a lLack of visibility can make it pretty hard to establish trusted policies without disrupting workflows. Organizations will need to build a zero trust architecture and grant access when the risk is lower than the value of granting access. They will have to achieve zero trust as well as compliance with the dynamic attack surface visibility using a network model.

Vulnerability management will continue to witness an uptick: A holistic cybersecurity roadmap and strategy will have to include not only internal and external cyber risk exposure management but also a robust risk-based vulnerability management system.

“We will begin using data coalescing to reduce SOC fatigue for vulnerabilities,” adds Sarkar.

Microsegmentation: In the times to come, microsegmentation will emerge as a foundational element of cyber defense and will be a primary driver for robust cybersecurity postures.

Breach and attack simulation: Breach and attack simulation tools can help organizations better understand security posture vulnerabilities by automating the testing of threat vectors such as external and insider threats and data exfiltration. These tools validate the security posture of an organization by testing its ability to detect simulated attacks performed by various platforms, software, and virtual machines. These tools generate reports about security gaps and assess remediation efforts. Towards building greater cyber resilience, breach attack simulators will begin to become contextual and will be a supportive tool for organizations..

The year ahead

While ransomware and supply chain attacks continue to trend as some of the high impact ones, this year we also saw the rise in AI based phishing campaigns, disruption in satellite communications, attacks on major utilities and transport infrastructures in multiple European countries, compromise in e-voting infrastructure, cyber-attacks on casinos for extortion and escalation in DDOS attacks.

“Preparing for and responding to cyber-attacks requires a comprehensive and multi-faceted approach involving technological, organizational, and policy measures. As we see the escalating effect of cyber incidents across enterprises disrupting national economies, I believe the need of the hour is the combination of a good national cybersecurity strategy, regulations to drive preventive measures, augmented by collaboration between government and private sectors to share expertise, resources, and intelligence. India is on the right trajectory as cyber security and data protection is being discussed not just within the government but also in intergovernmental forums,” says Tarun Kaura, Partner and Leader, Cyber Services, Deloitte India.

Cybersecurity, by its very nature, is a moving target and that makes a CIO’s and CISO’s job challenging. Most indicators show that cybersecurity will be a top priority for the coming year and it is in the best interest of organizations to garner attention around this topic. Just reacting to cyberattacks may not be enough, organizations will need to be proactive in managing threats.

“In every survey or discussion that I have, they all say that cyber security is right up there and rightly so,” says Venkatesh Mahadevan, Fellow — British Computer Society and former CIO, Dubai Investments PJSC.